More Long-Term Tenants in Dubai Are Considering Buying Their Own Homes

Dubai is gradually entering a new phase in the development of its residential property market, in which not only international investors but also people already living in the emirate are playing an increasingly prominent role. More expatriates who have spent years renting are beginning to view purchasing their own home as a more suitable long-term decision. The trend is particularly evident among families who have established their lives in Dubai, whose children attend local schools and whose long-term stay is secured through residency visas. For them, buying a home is increasingly becoming an alternative to renewing their rental contracts.

This shift coincides with a more selective phase of the market following two years of exceptionally strong growth. Buyers are now paying closer attention not only to property prices but also to financing terms, building quality and potential future rental returns.

During the third quarter of 2026, residential property sales in Dubai reached a value of €17.7 billion across approximately 34,000 transactions. This represents a decline of 47% in value and 38% in transaction volume compared with the same period last year. However, according to market analysts, these figures do not necessarily indicate a sharp contraction in activity, as part of the difference is attributable to the time between agreeing on a purchase and officially registering the transaction.

One of the main reasons long-term tenants are considering buying is the opportunity to compare their actual rental expenses with the costs of mortgage financing. Many prospective buyers have been renting for three, five or even eight years and now consider Dubai their permanent or long-term home. When comparing annual rent with the monthly mortgage payment on a comparable property, the difference sometimes turns out to be smaller than expected.

For these buyers, the decision is not determined solely by financial considerations. Proximity to schools, parking availability, neighbourhood characteristics and the overall living environment are becoming increasingly important. Unlike short-term investors, many are looking for a home where they can stay for the next ten years.

The mortgage market is also reflecting this trend. During the first half of 2026, approximately 22,500 residential mortgage transactions were recorded, representing an increase of more than 7% compared with the same period last year. Tenants whose rental contracts are approaching renewal are particularly active. They are increasingly comparing the option of signing a new rental agreement with purchasing their own home. Their calculations include not only monthly rental or mortgage payments but also service charges and moving expenses.

Ready-to-move-in properties are attracting particular interest, as they allow buyers to inspect the actual condition of a home and move in within a matter of weeks. Meanwhile, more moderate rental levels in some of the popular residential communities give tenants greater negotiating power and the opportunity to choose a larger property or a better-maintained building. For those considering a purchase, this also means more time to assess the available options without having to make a rushed decision.

International investors remain an important part of the market, but their behaviour is also changing. Realistic expectations regarding returns are becoming increasingly important, particularly in view of the significant number of new homes expected to enter the market. Some foreign buyers are also linking their investments to plans for long-term residency, viewing the property they acquire as a potential future family home.

The expected increase in residential supply is another factor influencing buyers' decisions. During the first half of 2026, approximately 24,800 residential units were added in Dubai - nearly 38% more than during the same period last year. More than 525,000 residential units are scheduled for completion between 2027 and 2030, although announced timelines do not guarantee that all projects will be delivered within this period. Greater supply could intensify competition among investors and landlords, particularly in areas dominated by high-rise residential buildings. Buyers are increasingly prioritising location, construction quality and the long-term value of a property. As the range of options expands for both tenants and buyers, investors and developers will need to offer more competitive terms and better value for money.

Market experts expect 2027 to place an even greater emphasis on careful financial planning, both when purchasing a home and when making investment decisions. Among the main recommendations for prospective buyers is to check not only advertised prices but also actual transactions registered with the Dubai Land Department, service charges and the condition of the building.

Ultimately, the choice between renting and buying depends on several key factors - mortgage affordability, upfront acquisition costs, the planned length of stay in Dubai and the quality of available properties. For an increasing number of long-term residents, however, owning a home is now emerging as a realistic alternative to renting over an extended period.